Combining forecasting tools and adaptive monitoring strategies for fast reaction plans for aquatic ecosystems at risk.

Host institution

Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Germany.

Project description

Highly valuable surface waters like drinking water reservoirs are carefully managed but the underly-ing management strategies and decision rules are often just based on engineering heuristics and long-term experience.

The inclusion of state-of-the art forecasting is required in the future in the face of climate change and increasing frequency of extreme events, but not easy to achieve because of two reasons: (i) forecasts come with uncertainty, and (ii) in case of negative developments forecasted an appropriate management response must be quickly identified. The aim of this ESR is develop and test new ways to link forecasting products with water management on the basis of real-world applications together with our Partner Ruhrverband.

The specific objectives are (1) use state-of-the-art reservoir models to translate climate projections into relevant information products for water quantity & quality, (2) compensate forecasting uncertainties by adaptive monitoring schemes that improve the information basis for science-based decisions, (3) delineate reaction plans for potential emergency situations that allow a proactive and very fast decision chain. Ultimately, this ESR will give efficient, pragmatic, and tailored management instruments at the hand of water managers.


Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark. 3 months
University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland, UK. 3 months


Lipa Nkwalale

fast reaction plans for aquatic ecosystems at risk
Combining forecasting tools and adaptive monitoring strategies