Assisting decision making with water quality predictions based on short-term weather forecasts.

Host institution

Dundalk Institute of Technology, Ireland.

Project description

Despite advances in water treatment technologies, toxic disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water remains an issue in regions with high levels of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in potable water sources including in Ireland. Workflows combining lake and catchment models of DOM with weather forecasts can be used to provide short-term water quality forecasts to support decision making.

Often, however, the resulting outputs are not fit for purpose as they are question- rather than solution-driven. All such forecasts and especially those based on model chains, also have large uncertainties which can devalue their use in decision making and management. This project will collate information on real-world management decisions and mitigation measures in two countries where high DOM levels are common, Ireland and Sweden, further develop a modelling workflow for short-term forecasts of DOM developed in previous projects and run the framework for multiple sequential short-term simulations using historical data (or years with contrasting climatic conditions) to assess how often such mitigation measures would need to be taken.

The project will also aim to undertake multiple short-term simulations of future change in DOM using ISIMIP climate data to assess future frequency and scope of such decisions, and the extent of any mitigation actions and look at options for potential decisions under current and future climates based on Robust Decision Making.


An Fóram Uisce, Ireland. 1 month.
Uppsala University, Sweden. 1 month.
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, USA. 1 month
University of Stirling, UK. 2 months. 


Ricardo Marroquin

Assisting decision making with water quality predictions
water quality predictions based on short-term weather forecasts